Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK
Judul : Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar dan Ekspor
Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonsia:
Penerapan Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) Model
Nama


: Raisa Insirah
NPM


: 2201101010027
Program Studi/Fakultas : Ekonomi Pembangunan / Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Pembimbing

: Dr. Muhammad Abrar S.E., M.Si

Sri Sukma Wahyuni S.E., M.Si.
Konsentrasi

: Ekonomi Moneter
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga, nilai tukar, dan
ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 1986–2025 dalam
jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder time
series yang diperoleh dari World Bank dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode
analisis yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) karena
mampu mengidentifikasi hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek
antarvariabel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang suku
bunga, nilai tukar, dan ekspor berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap
pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kenaikan suku bunga dapat menurunkan investasi dan
konsumsi, sementara pelemahan nilai tukar meningkatkan biaya impor dan
produksi. Ekspor juga berpengaruh negatif karena masih didominasi komoditas
primer dengan nilai tambah yang rendah. Dalam jangka pendek, suku bunga dan
ekspor berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sedangkan nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh
signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah perlu
menerapkan kebijakan yang mampu menjaga pertumbuhan ekonomi secara
berkelanjutan melalui pengelolaan suku bunga yang optimal, stabilisasi nilai tukar,
serta peningkatan daya saing dan nilai tambah ekspor. Dengan demikian,
pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dapat berlangsung secara stabil dan berkelanjutan.
Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, Ekspor, ARDL.

ABSTRACT Title : The Effect of Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, And Exports On Economic Growth in Indonesia: An Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Name : Raisa Insirah NPM : 2201101010027 Faculty/Dapartment : Economic Developmet / Economics Business Supervisor : Dr. Muhammad Abrar S.E., M.Si Sri Sukma Wahyuni S.E., M.Si. Consentration : Monetery Economics ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze the effects of interest rates, exchange rates, and exports on economic growth in Indonesia during the period 1986–2025, both in the long run and the short run. The study uses secondary time-series data obtained from the World Bank and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, as it is capable of identifying both long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. The results show that, in the long run, interest rates, exchange rates, and exports have a negative and significant impact on economic growth. An increase in interest rates can reduce investment and consumption, while a weakening exchange rate increases the cost of imports and production. Exports also have a negative effect because they are still dominated by primary commodities with low value added. In the short term, interest rates and exports have a significant negative effect, while the exchange rate has no significant effect on economic growth. Therefore, the government needs to implement policies capable of sustaining economic growth through optimal interest rate management, exchange rate stabilization, and improvements in the competitiveness and value added of exports. In this way, Indonesia’s economic growth can proceed in a stable and sustainable manner. Keywords: Economic Growth, Interest Rates, Exchange Rate, Exports, ARDL.