Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh investasi Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) dan Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Inklusif (PEI) di Indonesia dengan memasukkan modal manusia sebagai variabel moderasi. Penelitian menggunakan metode utama Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) berbasis Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) untuk menguji pengaruh langsung dan efek moderasi antarvariabel. Selain itu, digunakan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sebagai analisis lanjutan untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Data yang digunakan berupa data time series Indonesia periode 1990-2024 yang bersumber dari World Bank. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMTB berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif, sedangkan investasi UMKM dan modal manusia berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Modal manusia juga terbukti memoderasi hubungan investasi UMKM dan PMTB terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif. Hasil ARDL menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang antarvariabel serta proses penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Implikasi kebijakan penelitian menekankan pentingnya peningkatan kualitas modal manusia, produktivitas UMKM, dan efektivitas investasi untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang inklusif di Indonesia.

Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Inklusif, Investasi UMKM, PMTB, Modal Manusia, MRA, ARDL.

This study analyzes the effect of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) on inclusive economic growth in Indonesia by incorporating human capital as a moderating variable. The study employs Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) as the main analytical method to examine both direct and moderating effects among variables. In addition, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is applied as an extended analysis to investigate short-run and long-run relationships. The study uses annual time series data for Indonesia from 1990–2024 obtained from the World Bank. The results indicate that GFCF has a positive and significant effect on inclusive economic growth, while MSME investment and human capital have negative and significant effects. Human capital is also proven to moderate the relationship between MSME investment, GFCF, and inclusive economic growth. Furthermore, the ARDL results reveal the existence of a long-run relationship among variables and an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium, as indicated by a negative and significant. The policy implications emphasize the importance of improving human capital quality, increasing MSME productivity, and enhancing investment effectiveness to promote inclusive in Indonesia. Keywords: Inclusive economic growth, MSME investment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, human capital, MRA, ARDL.