Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing serta faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi penawaran ekspor lima komoditas perkebunan utama Indonesia ke pasar China, yaitu: minyak kelapa sawit, minyak kelapa, bubuk kakao, biji kopi, dan pala. Latar belakang penelitian didasarkan pada peran strategis perdagangan internasional dalam mendorong peningkatan devisa negara dan memperkuat daya saing nasional, di samping besarnya potensi pasar China sebagai mitra dagang utama Indonesia di kawasan Asia.
Metode penelitian menggunakan kombinasi metode analisis deskriptif dan kuantitatif. Pengukuran daya saing dilakukan melalui metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), dan X-Model Potential Ekspor guna mengidentifikasi posisi dan potensi pasar masing-masing komoditas. Untuk analisis terhadap faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi penawaran ekspor dilakukan dengan model regresi data panel menggunakan pendekatan Fixed Effect Model (FEM), yang ditetapkan berdasarkan hasil uji Chow dan uji Hausman.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar komoditas perkebunan Indonesia memiliki daya saing yang kuat (RCA > 1) dan masuk dalam kategori falling star, rising star dan retreat menurut klasifikasi EPD dan X-Model. Secara statistik, variabel PDB China, harga ekspor, produksi dalam negeri dan indeks RCA berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan nilai tukar menunjukkan pengaruh negatif, menandakan sensitivitas ekspor terhadap fluktuasi kurs.
Temuan ini mengindikasikan pentingnya perumusan strategi peningkatan daya saing ekspor melalui stabilisasi nilai tukar, penguatan kapasitas produksi domestik, pengembangan hilirisasi produk perkebunan, serta optimalisasi penetrasi pasar China secara berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini diharapkan menjadi rujukan empiris dalam penyusunan kebijakan ekspor nasional yang berbasis data dan berorientasi pada penguatan posisi Indonesia di pasar global.

This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and factors affecting the export supply of five major Indonesian plantation commodities to the Chinese market, namely: palm oil, coconut oil, cocoa powder, coffee beans, and nutmeg. The background of the study is based on the strategic role of international trade in encouraging increased foreign exchange and strengthening national competitiveness, in addition to the large potential of the Chinese market as Indonesia's main trading partner in the Asian region. The research method uses a combination of descriptive and quantitative analysis methods. Competitiveness measurement was conducted through the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and X-Model Export Potential methods to identify the position and market potential of each commodity. For the analysis of factors affecting export supply, a panel data regression model using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach was used, which was determined based on the results of the Chow test and Hausman test. The results show that most of Indonesia's plantation commodities have strong competitiveness (RCA > 1) and fall into the falling star, rising star and retreat categories according to the EPD and X-Model classifications. Statistically, the variables of China's GDP, export price, domestic production and RCA index have a positive and significant effect on export volume, while the exchange rate shows a negative effect, indicating the sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. These findings indicate the importance of formulating strategies to improve export competitiveness through exchange rate stabilization, strengthening domestic production capacity, developing downstream plantation products, and optimizing sustainable penetration of the Chinese market. This research is expected to be an empirical reference in the formulation of national export policies that are data-based and oriented towards strengthening Indonesia's position in the global market.