Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji apakah terdapat perbedaan hasil antara model Grover, Fulmer, dan Ohlson dalam mendeteksi financial distress serta menganalisis kemampuan prediksi financial distress dengan menggunakan model Grover (G-Score), Fulmer (H-Score), dan Ohlson (O-Score) dengan menggunakan pengujian hipotesis. Populasi pada penelitian ini adalah perusahaan sektor industri barang konsumsi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 2015-2019. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan metode dokumentasi berupa laporan keuangan perusahaan. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis statistika deskriptif dan paired sample t-test dengan aplikasi SPSS serta analisis tingkat akurasi model. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa terdapat perbedaan skor antara ketiga pair model yakni model Grover dan Fulmer, model Grover dan Ohlson, serta model Fulmer dan Ohlson berdasarkan hasil uji paired sample t-test antara tiap pair model dengan nilai Sig. (2-tailed) berturut-turut sebesar 0.009, 0.007, dan 0.000 yang mana probabilitas Sig. (2-tailed) < 0.05. Didapati pula bahwa model prediksi financial distress dengan tingkat akurasi tertinggi pada posisi pertama adalah model Grover dengan tingkat akurasi sebesar 86,67%, kemudian diikuti dengan model Ohlson pada posisi kedua dengan tingkat akurasi sebesar 74,29%, serta model Fulmer pada posisi terakhir dengan tingkat akurasi sebesar 71,74%.
Kata kunci: Financial Distress, Model Prediksi, Grover, Fulmer, Ohlson.

This study aims to examine whether there are differences in results between the Grover, Fulmer, and Ohlson models in detecting financial distress and analyzing the predictive ability of financial distress using the Grover (G-Score), Fulmer (H-Score) and Ohlson (O-Score) models. The population in this study were consumer goods industrial sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. The research data were obtained by the documentation’s method in the form of financial statements. This study uses descriptive statistical analysis and paired sample t-test using SPSS and also accuracy level analysis of the model. The results showed that the difference in scores between the three pairs of models, namely the Grover and Fulmer model, the Grover and Ohlson model, and the Fulmer and Ohlson model based on the results of the paired sample t-test between each model pair with a Sig value. (2-tailed) respectively 0.009, 0.007, and 0.000 where the probability is Sig. (2-tails) < 0.05. It was also found that the financial distress prediction model with the highest level of accuracy in the first position was the Grover model with an accuracy rate of 86.67%, followed by the Ohlson model in the second position with an accuracy rate of 74.29%, and the model Fulmer is in the last position with an accuracy rate of 71.74%. Keywords: Financial Distress, Prediction Model, Grover, Fulmer, Ohlson.