Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Kontestasi Pemilihan Presiden tahun 2024 menunjukkan hasil yang anomali di Provinsi Aceh. Pasangan Prabowo Subianto dan Gibran Rakabuming Raka yang berhasil menang secara masif di tingkat nasional justru mengalami kekalahan telak di Aceh. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tanggapan dari kalangan akademisi dan pengamat politik mengenai faktor penyebab kekalahan pasangan Prabow Gibran di Aceh pada Pilpres 2024. Penelitian ini menerapkan pendekatan kualitatif deskriptif dengan jenis penelitian lapangan yang berlokasi di Kota Banda Aceh. Data primer diperoleh melalui teknik pengumpulan data berupa wawancara bersama informan yang terdiri dari akademisi, pengamat politik, LSM, serta masyarakat umum. Data sekunder didukung melalui studi dokumentasi berupa, jurnal, data statistik kependudukan, dan laporan resmi KPU/KIP Aceh. Berdasarkan sudut pandang akademisi dan pengamat politik, kekalahan Prabowo Gibran di Aceh disebabkan oleh pergeseran citra Prabowo. Kehadiran Gibran sebagai cawapres memicu sentimen negatif terkait politik dinasti dan pelanggaran etik di Mahkamah Konstitusi. Secara sosiologis dan psikologis, mayoritas masyarakat dan pemilih religius di Aceh mengalihkan dukungannya kepada pasangan Anies Baswedan Muhaimin Iskandar karena dinilai lebih merepresentasikan identitas lokal dan mendapatkan dukungan kuat dari para ulama. Meskipun kalah telak di tingkat regional, implikasi terhadap dinamika pemerintahan di Aceh diprediksi tidak akan mengalami hambatan komunikasi politik yang berarti. Hal ini dikarenakan adanya "jembatan emas" berupa kedekatan personal dan historis antara Presiden Prabowo dengan Gubernur Aceh (Mualem) serta keberadaan Wakil Gubernur (Dek Fad) yang merupakan kader Partai Gerindra. Hubungan harmonis ini membuka peluang besar bagi keberlanjutan Dana Otonomi Khusus serta percepatan revisi Undang-Undang Pemerintahan Aceh (UUPA). Kata Kunci: Perilaku Pemilih, Pilpres 2024, Akademisi, Dinamika Pemerintahan, Aceh.

The 2024 Presidential Election demonstrated an anomalous result in Aceh Province. The Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair, who won overwhelmingly at the national level, suffered a landslide defeat in Aceh. This study aims to determine the perspectives of academics and political observers regarding the factors driving the defeat of the Prabowo-Gibran pair in Aceh during the 2024 Presidential Election. This study applies a descriptive qualitative approach through field research conducted in Banda Aceh City. Primary data were obtained through interviews with informants consisting of academics, political observers, NGOs, and the general public. Secondary data were supported by documentary studies, including journals, demographic statistical data, and official reports from the KPU/KIP Aceh. From the perspective of academics and political observers, the defeat of Prabowo-Gibran in Aceh was triggered by a shift in Prabowo's image. Gibran's presence as the vice presidential candidate sparked negative sentiment regarding dynastic politics and ethical violations in the Constitutional Court. Sociologically and psychologically, the majority of Aceh's society and religious voters organically shifted their support to the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair, who were perceived to better represent local identity and received strong endorsement from Muslim scholars (ulama). Despite the landslide defeat at the regional level, the implications for the dynamics of governance in Aceh are predicted to face no significant barriers in political communication. This is due to the existence of a "golden bridge" in the form of close personal and historical ties between President Prabowo and the Governor of Aceh (Mualem), as well as the position of the Vice Governor (Dek Fad), who is a cadre of the Gerindra Party. This harmonious relationship opens up significant opportunities for the sustainability of Special Autonomy Funds (Dana Otsus) and the acceleration of the revision of the Law on the Governing of Aceh (UUPA). Keywords: Voter Behavior, 2024 Presidential Election, Academics, Government Dynamics, Aceh.