Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK

Judul
: Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Kebijakan Dan Inflasi

Terhadap Suku Bunga Kredit Modal Kerja Di Indonesia
Penulis
: Masitoh Hannum
NIM
: 2201101010017
Fakultas/Jurusan : Ekonomi dan Bisnis/Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing
: Nur Aidar, S.E., M.S.E dan Talbani Farlian, S.E., M.A
Konsentrasi
: Ekonomi Moneter

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga kebijakan dan
inflasi terhadap suku bunga kredit modal kerja di Indonesia, baik secara parsial
maupun simultan, selama periode 1996-2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan
pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori dengan metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
berdasarkan data sekunder tahunan yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia, Badan
Pusat Statistik, dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, yang diolah menggunakan EViews.
Sebelum estimasi, model diuji menggunakan uji asumsi klasik dan dinyatakan
terbebas dari multikolinearitas, heteroskedastisitas, dan autokorelasi, meskipun
residual tidak berdistribusi normal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku
bunga kebijakan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap suku bunga kredit
modal kerja (koefisien 0,5679; p = 0,0037), sedangkan inflasi berpengaruh positif
namun tidak signifikan (koefisien 0,1055; p = 0,3723). Secara simultan, suku
bunga kebijakan dan inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap suku bunga kredit
modal kerja (F = 38,188; p = 0,000) dengan adjusted R² sebesar 0,7265. Temuan
ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga kebijakan merupakan faktor yang lebih
dominan dibandingkan inflasi dalam memengaruhi suku bunga kredit modal kerja
di Indonesia, serta mengindikasikan bahwa mekanisme transmisi kebijakan
moneter melalui jalur suku bunga masih berperan penting dalam penetapan suku
bunga kredit modal kerja di Indonesia.

Kata Kunci: Suku Bunga Kebijakan, Inflasi, Suku Bunga Kredit Modal Kerja,
Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter, Ordinary Least Squares.

ABSTRACT Title : An Analysis Of The Effects Of Policy Interest Rates And Inflation On Working Capital Loan Interest Rates in Indonesia Author : Masitoh Hannum NIM : 2201101010017 Faculty/Departemen : Economics Business/Economic Development Supervisor : Nur Aidar, S.E., M.S.E dan Talbani Farlian, S.E., M.A Concentration : Monetary Economics This study aims to analyze the effects of the policy interest rate and inflation on working capital loan interest rates in Indonesia, both partially and simultaneously, during the period 1996-2024. This study employs an explanatory quantitative approach using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method based on annual secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency, and the Financial Services Authority, which were analyzed using EViews. Prior to estimation, the model was tested using classical assumption tests and was found to be free of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation, although the residuals were not normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the policy interest rate has a positive and significant effect on working capital loan interest rates (coefficient 0.5679; p = 0.0037), while inflation has a positive but insignificant effect (coefficient 0.1055; p = 0.3723). Simultaneously, the policy interest rate and inflation have a significant effect on working capital loan interest rates (F = 38.188; p = 0.000), with an adjusted R² of 0.7265. These findings suggest that the policy interest rate is a more dominant factor than inflation in influencing working capital loan interest rates in Indonesia, and indicate that the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the interest rate channel still plays an important role in determining working capital loan interest rates in Indonesia. Keywords: Policy Interest Rate, Inflation, Working Capital Loan Interest Rate, Monetary Policy Transmission, Ordinary Least Squares.