Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK
Sektor pertanian merupakan tulang punggung perekonomian Provinsi Aceh, di mana lebih dari 35 persen tenaga kerja pedesaan bergantung pada subsektor tanaman pangan padi. Meskipun demikian, tingginya keterlibatan masyarakat di sektor ini tidak serta merta berbanding lurus dengan tingkat kesejahteraan petani. Kesejahteraan petani diukur menggunakan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP), yaitu rasio antara indeks harga yang diterima petani (It) dengan indeks harga yang dibayar petani (Ib). Komponen utama pembentuk pendapatan petani padi adalah harga gabah, baik dalam bentuk Gabah Kering Panen (GKP) maupun Gabah Kering Giling (GKG), yang diduga berpengaruh langsung terhadap perubahan NTP.
Penelitian ini bertujuan mendeskripsikan perkembangan harga GKP, GKG, dan NTP di Provinsi Aceh periode 2020–2025, serta menganalisis pengaruhnya secara parsial dan simultan. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder bulanan dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Provinsi Aceh sebanyak 72 observasi. Metode analisis yang diterapkan meliputi analisis deskriptif, analisis tren, analisis indeks harga, dan analisis regresi linear berganda dengan bantuan program SPSS, disertai uji asumsi klasik untuk memastikan model bersifat BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator).
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga GKP meningkat dari rata-rata Rp4.000/kg pada tahun 2020 menjadi Rp5.803/kg pada tahun 2025, sedangkan harga GKG meningkat dari Rp5.250/kg menjadi Rp7.803/kg pada periode yang sama. Nilai NTP juga bergerak naik dari 99,09 pada tahun 2020 hingga mencapai 122,18 pada tahun 2025, yang mengindikasikan perbaikan kesejahteraan petani secara berkelanjutan. Hasil uji parsial (uji t) menunjukkan bahwa harga GKP berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap NTP (t-hitung = 2,747; sig. = 0,008), karena mayoritas petani langsung menjual gabah dalam bentuk GKP sesaat setelah panen untuk memenuhi kebutuhan modal.
Sebaliknya, harga GKG tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap NTP (sig. = 0,888), disebabkan oleh tingginya beban penyusutan fisis sebesar 9 persen dan biaya penjemuran sebesar 4 persen yang menggerus keuntungan petani, sehingga nilai tambah GKG lebih banyak dinikmati oleh pedagang pengumpul dan pemilik penggilingan. Secara simultan, kedua variabel bersama-sama berpengaruh signifikan terhadap NTP (F-hitung = 34,064; sig. = 0,000), dengan koefisien determinasi (Adjusted R²) sebesar 48,2 persen.
Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, disarankan agar pemerintah daerah memperketat pengawasan implementasi Harga Pembelian Pemerintah (HPP) untuk GKP terutama saat musim panen raya, serta memprioritaskan program modernisasi infrastruktur pascapanen berupa pengadaan mesin pengering mekanis dan penguatan lumbung pangan desa. Langkah ini penting agar petani di Provinsi Aceh mampu menikmati nilai tambah dari penjualan GKG secara langsung, sehingga kesejahteraan mereka dapat terus meningkat secara berkelanjutan.
Kata Kunci: Gabah Kering Panen, Gabah Kering Giling, Nilai Tukar Petani, Kesejahteraan Petani, Provinsi Aceh.

ABSTRACT The agricultural sector is the backbone of the economy in Aceh Province, where more than 35 percent of the rural workforce depends on the rice crop subsector for their livelihood. However, the high level of community involvement in this sector is not necessarily accompanied by improved farmer welfare. Farmers' welfare is measured using the Farmer Exchange Rate (FER), which is the ratio of the Price Index Received by Farmers (It) to the Price Index Paid by Farmers (Ib). The main component determining the income of rice farmers is the price of paddy, both Harvested Dry Paddy (HDP) and Milled Dry Paddy (MDP), which are presumed to directly influence changes in the Farmer Exchange Rate. This study aims to describe the development of HDP prices, MDP prices, and the Farmer Exchange Rate in Aceh Province during the 2020–2025 period, as well as to analyze their partial and simultaneous effects. The study uses monthly secondary data obtained from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of Aceh Province, consisting of 72 observations. The analytical methods employed include descriptive analysis, trend analysis, price index analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS software, accompanied by classical assumption tests to ensure that the model satisfies the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) criteria. The results indicate that the average price of HDP increased from IDR 4,000 per kilogram in 2020 to IDR 5,803 per kilogram in 2025, while the average price of MDP rose from IDR 5,250 per kilogram to IDR 7,803 per kilogram over the same period. The Farmer Exchange Rate also showed an upward trend, increasing from 99.09 in 2020 to 122.18 in 2025, indicating a sustained improvement in farmers' welfare. The partial t-test results reveal that the price of HDP has a positive and significant effect on the Farmer Exchange Rate (t = 2.747; p = 0.008), as most farmers sell their harvested paddy immediately after harvest to meet their working capital needs. In contrast, the price of MDP does not have a significant effect on the Farmer Exchange Rate (p = 0.888). This is attributed to the high physical shrinkage rate of approximately 9 percent and drying costs of around 4 percent, which reduce farmers' profits. Consequently, the added value of MDP is largely captured by collectors and rice mill owners rather than by farmers themselves. Simultaneously, both variables have a significant effect on the Farmer Exchange Rate (F = 34.064; p < 0.001), with an Adjusted R² value of 48.2 percent. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the regional government strengthen the supervision of the implementation of the Government Purchasing Price (GPP) for Harvested Dry Paddy, particularly during the main harvest season. In addition, priority should be given to the modernization of post-harvest infrastructure through the provision of mechanical grain dryers and the strengthening of village food storage facilities. These measures are expected to enable farmers in Aceh Province to capture greater added value from selling Milled Dry Paddy directly, thereby promoting sustainable improvements in their welfare. Keywords: Harvested Dry Paddy, Milled Dry Paddy, Farmer Exchange Rate, Farmer Welfare, Aceh Province.