Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh remitansi, utang luar negeri,
dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia dalam
jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan
kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berbentuk time series tahunan periode 1993-2024
yang diperoleh dari World Bank. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Error
Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka
pendek utang luar negeri berpengaruh positif terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia,
sedangkan remitansi dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) tidak berpengaruh.
Dalam jangka panjang, remitansi dan utang luar negeri berpengaruh positif terhadap
cadangan devisa Indonesia, sedangkan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) tidak
berpengaruh. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tersebut, pemerintah diharapkan dapat
memperkuat pengelolaan sektor eksternal melalui optimalisasi remitansi,
pengelolaan utang luar negeri yang produktif, serta peningkatan kualitas investasi
asing guna mendukung stabilitas cadangan devisa Indonesia.

Kata Kunci: Remitansi, Utang Luar Negeri, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Cadangan Devisa, Error Correction Model (ECM).

ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze the effects of remittances, external debt, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in both the short run and the long run. This research employs a quantitative approach using annual time series secondary data covering the period 1993–2024 obtained from the World Bank. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM).The results indicate that, in the short run, external debt has a positive effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, while remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) have no effect. In the long run, remittances and external debt have a positive effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, whereas Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has no effect. Based on these findings, the government is expected to strengthen the management of the external sector through the optimization of remittance inflows, the productive management of external debt, and the improvement of the quality of foreign investment in order to support the stability of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. Keywords: Remittances, External Debt, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Foreign Exchange Reserves, Error Correction Model (ECM).