Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Dinamika pergerakan pada rute Bireuen-Lhokseumawe menuntut evaluasi terhadap daya saing angkutan perkeretaapian dibandingkan moda transportasi jalan raya. Penelitian ini menganalisis utilitas dan probabilitas pemilihan moda antara kendaraan pribadi, angkutan umum (minibus/Hiace), dan Kereta Api (KA) Cut Meutia. Pengumpulan data melibatkan 400 responden menggunakan teknik kuesioner Revealed Preference (RP) dan Stated Preference (SP). Data tersebut dianalisis menggunakan pemodelan Multinomial Logit (MNL) yang dikalibrasi melalui perangkat lunak STATA. Hasil kalibrasi model menunjukkan tingkat validitas yang sangat baik dengan nilai Pseudo R-Squared (McFadden) mencapai 65,03%. Secara simultan, variabel keandalan perjalanan, tarif, jumlah kepemilikan mobil, serta maksud dan alasan perjalanan terbukti memengaruhi keputusan pelaku perjalanan secara signifikan. Berdasarkan data sampel hasil penapisan (screening), probabilitas pemilihan moda didominasi oleh kendaraan pribadi sebesar 46%, diikuti oleh KA Cut Meutia sebesar 29%, dan angkutan umum sebesar 26%. Analisis sensitivitas mengungkap bahwa pengguna KA sangat sensitif terhadap elastisitas harga; probabilitas pemilihan kereta api dapat anjlok hingga 0% pada skenario tarif tertinggi. Analisis sensitivitas mengungkapkan tingginya tingkat elastisitas harga, di mana peningkatan tarif kereta api secara tajam menurunkan probabilitas penggunaan hingga menyentuh angka 0%. Sebaliknya, perbaikan indikator keandalan operasional terbukti mampu mendorong perpindahan pengguna dari moda jalan raya menuju layanan perkeretaapian. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa strategi penetapan tarif yang cermat dan peningkatan kualitas pelayanan merupakan faktor krusial untuk meningkatkan okupansi penumpang harian pada koridor tersebut.

The travel dynamics along the Bireuen-Lhokseumawe route necessitate an evaluation of the competitiveness of railway transport compared to road-based transportation modes. This study analyzes the utility and mode choice probabilities among private vehicles, public transportation (minibus/Hiace), and the Cut Meutia Train (KA Cut Meutia). Data were collected from 400 respondents utilizing Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) questionnaire techniques. These data were subsequently analyzed using Multinomial Logit (MNL) modeling calibrated via STATA software. The model calibration results indicate an excellent level of validity, with the McFadden Pseudo R-squared value reaching 65.03%. Simultaneously, variables such as travel reliability, fare, car ownership, as well as trip purposes and reasons, were proven to significantly influence travelers' decision-making processes. Based on the sample data obtained from the screening process [screened sample data], the mode choice probability is dominated by private vehicles at 46%, followed by the Cut Meutia Train at 29% and public transportation at 26%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that railway users exhibit a high level of price elasticity; specifically, a sharp increase in train fares precipitously reduces the selection probability to 0% under the highest fare scenario. Conversely, improvements in operational reliability indicators were proven capable of encouraging a modal shift from road-based modes to railway services. This study concludes that a meticulous pricing strategy and service quality enhancements are crucial factors for increasing daily passenger occupancy [ridership] along the corridor.