Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Studi di Sub DAS Laut Tawar (Aceh Tengah) ini, menunjukkan perubahan biofisik dan
sosio‑ekonomi signifikan antara 2015–2024. Populasi meningkat dari 196.090 menjadi
232.606 jiwa (rata‑rata 2,3% per tahun), dengan kepadatan tinggi di Bebesen (905
jiwa/km²), Bies (312 jiwa/km²) dan Kebayakan (350 jiwa/km²). Analisis citra satelit
mengungkap pergeseran LST dari dominasi 11–23℃ (2015) ke ekspansi 18–32℃
(2024), berkaitan dengan penurunan tutupan vegetasi (NDVI) dan konversi lahan untuk
permukiman serta infrastruktur. Topografi pegunungan dan kemiringan curam
memoderasi efek termal sehingga area elevasi tinggi mempertahankan LST lebih
rendah. Klasifikasi LULC tervalidasi dengan baik (Overall Accuracy 90,5%; Kappa
89,04%), mendukung analisis spasial. Secara ekonomi total PDRB meningkat dari
Rp5,89 miliar menjadi Rp10,72 miliar (+82%), dengan sektor pertanian, kehutanan, dan
perikanan tetap dominan (45,9% pada 2024) namun sektor non‑agraris (perdagangan,
konstruksi, akomodasi) tumbuh pesat (mis. akomodasi +206,5%). Interaksi antara
urbanisasi, degradasi vegetasi, dan transformasi ekonomi mempercepat kenaikan LST,
mengurangi infiltrasi, dan meningkatkan risiko limpasan serta sedimentasi. Implikasi
kebijakan meliputi perlunya zonasi konservasi di tangkapan air, pengendalian ekspansi
permukiman di dataran rendah, serta penerapan agroforestry dan green infrastructure
untuk meredam kenaikan suhu, memperbaiki infiltrasi, dan menjaga ketahanan
hidrologi serta produktivitas agrikultur. Rekomendasi operasional yang diusulkan
mencakup penguatan kapasitas masyarakat untuk konservasi tanah, insentif praktik
pertanian berkelanjutan, pemantauan LST dan NDVI berkala, serta integrasi data spasial
ke dalam perencanaan daerah untuk menyeimbangkan tujuan pembangunan ekonomi
dan pelestarian fungsi ekosistem jangka panjang serta mendukung kebijakan adaptasi
berbasis bukti lokal.

Study in the Laut Tawar sub‑catchment (Aceh Tengah) reveals significant bio‑physical and socio‑economic changes between 2015 and 2024. Population increased from 196,090 to 232,606 inhabitants (average annual growth 2.3%), with high population densities concentrated in Bebesen (905 people km⁻²), Bies (312 people km⁻²) and Kebayakan (350 people km⁻²). Satellite imagery analysis indicates a shift in land surface temperature (LST) distribution from predominately 11–23°C in 2015 to an expanded 18–32°C in 2024, associated with declines in vegetation cover (NDVI) and conversion of land for settlements and infrastructure. Mountainous topography and steep slopes moderate thermal effects, so higher‑elevation areas generally retain lower LST. Land‑use/land‑cover (LULC) classification was validated with high reliability (Overall Accuracy 90.5%; Kappa 89.04%), supporting subsequent spatial analyses. Economically, total regional GDP rose from approximately IDR 5.89 billion to IDR 10.72 billion (+82%), with agriculture, forestry, and fisheries remaining dominant (45.9% of GRDP in 2024) while non‑agrarian sectors (trade, construction, accommodation) expanded rapidly (e.g., accommodation +206.5%). The interaction of urbanization, vegetation degradation, and economic transformation has accelerated LST increases, reduced infiltration, and heightened runoff and sedimentation risks. Policy implications include prioritizing conservation zoning in water‑catchment areas, controlling settlement expansion on lowlands, and promoting agroforestry and green infrastructure to mitigate temperature rise, improve infiltration, and sustain hydrological and agricultural resilience. Operational recommendations comprise strengthening community capacity for soil conservation, incentivizing sustainable farming practices, periodic monitoring of LST and NDVI, and integrating spatial data into regional planning to balance short‑term economic objectives with long‑term ecosystem function preservation.