Electronic Theses and Dissertation

PT. Langini Jaya Group dihadapkan pada kondisi ketidakseimbangan antara jumlah
produksi dan permintaan pasar, yang memicu terjadinya shortage kapasitas gudang serta
penumpukan persediaan barang jadi. Situasi ini menimbulkan ketidakefisienan dalam
pengelolaan gudang, menghambat kelancaran siklus produksi berikutnya, serta
meningkatkan potensi kerugian akibat kelebihan stok. Penelitian ini bertujuan
mengoptimalkan perencanaan produksi air minum dalam kemasan ukuran 220 ml melalui
penerapan metode simulasi Monte Carlo serta pengendalian persediaan bahan baku
menggunakan metode min–max stock. Data penelitian mencakup data produksi, penjualan,
dan persediaan bahan baku periode 2022–2024. Simulasi Monte Carlo dilaksanakan
melalui penyusunan distribusi probabilitas, pembangkitan bilangan acak, dan pelaksanaan
tiga skenario simulasi. Pemilihan skenario terbaik didasarkan pada nilai akurasi dan
MAPE, di mana Simulasi ke-2 menunjukkan performa paling optimal dengan akurasi
100,30% dan MAPE 6,5% yang berada pada kategori sangat baik. Berdasarkan simulasi
tersebut, diperoleh proyeksi kebutuhan produksi sebesar 49.650 dus pada tahun 2025,
50.342 dus pada tahun 2026, dan 50.027 dus pada tahun 2027. Selanjutnya, metode min–
max stock digunakan untuk menentukan safety stock, persediaan minimum, persediaan
maksimum, serta titik pemesanan ulang bahan baku. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan
bahwa metode ini mampu menjaga ketersediaan bahan baku secara optimal tanpa
menimbulkan beban berlebih pada kapasitas gudang. Secara keseluruhan, integrasi
simulasi Monte Carlo dan min–max stock terbukti efektif dalam menghasilkan perencanaan
produksi yang lebih akurat, stabil, dan adaptif guna meminimalkan risiko shortage
kapasitas gudang.
Kata Kunci: Pengendalian Produksi, Air Minum dalam Kemasan, Monte Carlo, Min Max
Stock, Shortage

PT. Langini Jaya Group is confronted with an imbalance between production volume and market demand, which leads to warehouse capacity shortages and the accumulation of finished goods inventory. This condition results in inefficiencies in warehouse management, disrupts subsequent production cycles, and increases the risk of financial losses due to excess stock. This study aims to optimize production planning for 220 ml bottled drinking water by applying the Monte Carlo simulation method and raw material inventory control using the min–max stock method. The research utilizes historical data on production, sales, and raw material inventory from the 2022–2024 period. The Monte Carlo simulation was conducted through the construction of probability distributions, random number generation, and the execution of three simulation scenarios. The selection of the optimal scenario was based on accuracy and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values, where the second simulation demonstrated the best performance with an accuracy of 100.30% and a MAPE value of 6.5%, classified as very good. Based on this simulation, projected production requirements were estimated at 49,650 cartons in 2025, 50,342 cartons in 2026, and 50,027 cartons in 2027. Furthermore, the min–max stock method was employed to determine safety stock levels, minimum and maximum inventory limits, and reorder points for raw materials. The results indicate that this method effectively maintains optimal raw material availability without imposing excessive burdens on warehouse capacity. Overall, the integration of Monte Carlo simulation and the min–max stock method is proven to be effective in generating more accurate, stable, and adaptive production planning, thereby minimizing the risk of warehouse capacity shortages. Keywords: Production Control, Bottled Drinking Water, Monte Carlo Simulation, Min– Max Stock, Warehouse Shortage.