A CROSS-COUNTRY PANEL DATA EVIDENCE Edward Nicholas Primary Author mixed material bibliography Banda Aceh Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis 2025

Theses

Poverty remains a complex and persistent challenge, often oversimplified as a low-income issue, neglecting the broader macroeconomic and intersectoral drivers. This study addresses that gap by analyzing how food price volatility, human capital investment, and external debt jointly influence extreme poverty across six developing ASEAN and Latin American countries from 2006 to 2021. Using panel non-linear ARDL techniques, it investigates both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between food prices, education, health, external debt, and poverty. For robustness check, ARDL linear and FMOLS models were employed. The results reveal that while food price increases at moderate levels can reduce long-run poverty in producer-based economies, high price spikes raise poverty in net consumer economies. Short-run effects of food prices are largely insignificant, reflecting household adjustment delays and temporary policy interventions. Education and health demonstrate mixed impacts strongly reducing poverty in some contexts like El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, but remaining insignificant elsewhere due to systemic inefficiencies. External debt exerts dual effects: it supports poverty reduction when productively invested but worsens it when it crowds out pro-poor spending. Significant error correction terms affirm long-run equilibrium adjustments, emphasizing the structural nature of poverty. The study’s key contribution lies in introducing a dynamic, policy-integrated framework that aligns macro shocks with sectoral responses. It recommends establishing National Food-Education-Health Sovereign Wealth Funds, a Constitutionally Mandated Poverty Resilience Compact, and a Poverty-Indexed Public Procurement Framework. Together, these mechanisms offer a transformative shift from reactive poverty aid to sovereign, anticipatory, and scalable governance models capable of accelerating progress toward SDG 1 and SDG 2. Keywords: Food Prices, Poverty, Developing Countries, Non-linear Model 0 ELECTRONIC THESES AND DISSERTATION Universitas Syiah Kuala 167325 2025-07-25 12:21:43 2025-07-25 14:43:46 machine generated