Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK
Judul : Analisis Produksi Padi, Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar Petani Terhadap Kemiskinan di Indonesia.
Nama : Mustaqim
NIM : 1801101010051
Fakultas / Jurusan : Ekonomi dan Bisnis / Ekonomi Pembangunan
Dosen pembimbing : Ferayanti S.E., M.Si
Dr. Chenny Seftarita, S.E., M.Si
Konsentrasi : Ekonomi Pertanian dan Pangan
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh produksi padi, inflasi, dan nilai tukar petani terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia selama periode 1995 hingga 2024. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode regresi Ordinary Least Square (OLS), penelitian ini menemukan bahwa secara parsial, produksi padi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kemiskinan meskipun arah hubungannya negatif. Inflasi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kemiskinan dengan arah hubungan positif, yang berarti peningkatan inflasi cenderung meningkatkan jumlah penduduk miskin. Sementara itu, nilai tukar petani berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, menunjukkan bahwa perubahan NTP belum cukup kuat memengaruhi kesejahteraan petani secara langsung. Namun, secara simultan, ketiga variabel tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia. Hasil ini menegaskan pentingnya pengelolaan inflasi dan sinergi antar sektor pertanian dalam upaya pengentasan kemiskinan secara menyeluruh.
Kata kunci: Kemiskinan, Produksi Padi, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Petani, OLS

ABSTRACT Title : Analysis of Rice Production, Inflation and Farmer's Exchange Rate Against Poverty in Indonesia. Name : Mustaqim NIM : 1801101010051 Faculty / Department : Economics and Business / Development Economics Supervisor : Ferayanti S.E., M.Si Dr. Chenny Seftarita, S.E., M.Si Concentration : Agricultural and Food Economics This study aims to analyze the effects of rice production, inflation, and the farmers’ terms of trade (NTP) on poverty levels in Indonesia from 1995 to 2024. Using a quantitative approach and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method, the findings show that, partially, rice production does not have a significant effect on poverty, although the regression coefficient indicates a negative relationship. Inflation has a significant and positive impact on poverty, suggesting that rising inflation tends to increase the number of poor people. Meanwhile, the farmers’ terms of trade show a positive but insignificant effect on poverty, indicating that changes in NTP have not yet had a strong direct impact on farmers’ welfare. However, simultaneously, the three variables—rice production, inflation, and farmers’ terms of trade—have a significant effect on poverty in Indonesia. These results emphasize the importance of inflation control and sectoral synergy in agriculture as strategic efforts for poverty alleviation. Keywords: Poverty, Rice Production, Inflation, Farmers’ Terms of Trade, OLS