Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK
Judul : Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Nilai Tukar, dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Pasar Saham di Negara ASEAN-5
Penulis : Nadila Arsya
NIM :2101101010068
Fakultas/Jurusan : Ekonomi dan Bisnis/Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing : Asri Diana S.E., M.Si
Konsentrasi : Ekonomi Moneter
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, nilai tukar, dan suku bunga terhadap pasar saham di ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailand) selama periode 2001 hingga 2023. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pasar saham dalam jangka panjang, namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek. Fluktuasi nilai tukar memberikan dampak negatif signifikan terhadap pasar saham baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Dampak suku bunga juga menunjukkan pengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka pendek, namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan temuan ini, disarankan agar pemerintah dan Bank Sentral fokus pada kebijakan yang mendukung stabilitas ekonomi jangka panjang, serta menyesuaikannya dengan kondisi ekonomi dan pasar saham. Penelitian selanjutnya juga disarankan untuk menyelidiki faktor lain yang mempengaruhi pasar saham, seperti inflasi dan harga minyak serta menganalisis lebih mendalam mengenai dampak krisis ekonomi global yang mempengaruhi pergerakan pasar saham.
Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Pasar Saham, ARDL

ABSTRACT Title : The Influence of Economic Growth, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates on Stock Markets in ASEAN-5 Countries Author : Nadila Arsya NIM :2101101010068 Faculty/Department :Economics and Business/Economic Development Supervisor : Asri Diana S.E., M.Si Concentration : Monetary Economic This study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth, exchange rates, and interest rates on the stock market in ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) during the period 2001 to 2023. This study uses the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with the results of the study showing that economic growth has a significant positive effect on the stock market in the long term, but is not significant in the short term. Exchange rate fluctuations have a significant negative impact on the stock market in both the long and short term. The impact of interest rates also shows a significant negative effect in the short term, but is not significant in the long term. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the government and the Central Bank focus on policies that support long-term economic stability, and adjust them to economic conditions and the stock market. Further research is also recommended to investigate other factors that affect the stock market, such as inflation and oil prices and analyze in more depth the impact of the global economic crisis that affects stock market movements. Keywords: Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Stock Market, ARDL