Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK

Judul : Fluktuasi Harga Minyak dan Kebijakan Moneter
terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia
Penulis : Natasya Andira
NIM : 2101101010135
Fakultas/Jurusan : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis/Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing : Asri Diana, S.E., M.Si
Konsentrasi : Ekonomi Moneter

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh harga minyak, inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan panjang. Data tahunan periode 1993-2023 (31 observasi) dianalisis menggunakan model Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), yang dipilih berdasarkan uji stasioneritas data. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, harga minyak berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi dalam jangka panjang pengaruhnya negatif signifikan. Inflasi memiliki dampak negatif signifikan dalam jangka pendek, tetapi negatif tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Suku bunga dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh positif tidak signifikan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang berdampak negatif signifikan. Nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh positif tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek, namun berdampak negatif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilitas harga energi dan mendorong investasi energi terbarukan untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada minyak. Kebijakan moneter dan fiskal harus dioptimalkan untuk mengendalikan inflasi, terutama di sektor pangan dan energi. Bank Indonesia perlu menerapkan kebijakan suku bunga yang adaptif dan mendorong stabilitas nilai tukar melalui langkah-langkah strategis guna mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Kata kunci: ARDL, Harga Minyak, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Suku Bunga.

ABSTRACT Tittle : Oil Price Fluctuations and Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Indonesia Author : Natasya Andira NIM : 2101101010135 Fakulty/Department : Economics and Business/Economic Development Supervisor : Asri Diana, S.E., M.Si Consentration : Monetary Economic This study analyzes the influence of oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on Indonesia's economic growth in the short and long term. Annual data for the period 1993-2023 (31 observations) were analyzed using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which was selected based on the data stationarity test. The results show that in the short term, oil prices have a significant positive effect on economic growth, but in the long term the effect is negative. Inflation has a significant negative impact in the short term, but negative is not significant in the long term. Interest rates in the short term have a positive effect that is not significant, while in the long term have a significant negative impact. The exchange rate has a positive influence that is not significant in the short term, but has a significant negative impact in the long term. Based on the results of the study, the government needs to maintain energy price stability and encourage renewable energy investment to reduce dependence on oil. Monetary and fiscal policies must be optimized to control inflation, especially in the food and energy sectors. Bank Indonesia needs to implement an adaptive interest rate policy and encourage exchange rate stability through strategic measures to support economic growth. Keywords: ARDL, Exchange Rates, Economic Growth, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil Prices.