Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Iklim berperan besar terhadap kehidupan manusia seperti dalam bidang pertanian, transportasi, telekomunikasi, dan pariwisata. Curah hujan merupakan unsur iklim yang memiliki keragaman dan fluktuasi yang tinggi, serta paling dominan mencirikan iklim di Indonesia saat ini. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat curah hujan dari tiga wilayah di Kabupaten Simeulue menggunakan Generalized Additive Models (GAM) dengan pendekatan basis p-spline. Data klimatologi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data sekunder bersumber dari power larc nasa yang merupakan data time series dimana data tingkat curah hujan di pulau Simeulue beserta beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi diantaranya data suhu udara, kecepatan angin, kelembapan udara, tekanan udara dan radiasi matahari. Terdapat dua analisis yang digunakan, yaitu analisis deskriptif yang disajikan dalam tabel summary statistic, plot time series, histogram dan analisis inferensia dilakukan untuk mengambil kesimpulan dari data klimatologi di Kabupaten Simeulue. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh model terbaik yang dapat menjelaskan data curah hujan di Kabupaten Simeulue dari ketiga wilayah adalah model data wilayah timur dengan menggunakan GAM basis smoothing p-spline dan variasi knot suhu udara (13), kecepatan angin (16), kelembapan udara (16), tekanan udara (13), radiasi matahari (16), efek harian (14) dan efek tahunan (17) memiliki nilai AIC minimum sebesar 1844,001, semua variabel prediktor berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap curah hujan di Kabupaten Simeulue.

Kata Kunci: Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Basis P-Spline, Klimatologi, Kabupaten Simeulue.

Climate plays a major role in human life, such as in the fields of agriculture, transportation, telecommunications and tourism. Rainfall is a climate element that has high diversity and fluctuation, and is the most dominant characteristic of the climate in Indonesia today. This research was conducted to look at the factors that influence rainfall levels from three regions in Simeulue Regency using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) with a p-spline basis approach. The climatological data used in this research is secondary data sourced from NASA's Power Larc, which is time series data where data on rainfall levels on Simeulue Island along with several influencing factors include data on air temperature, wind speed, air humidity, air pressure and solar radiation. There are two analyzes used, namely descriptive analysis presented in a summary statistical table, time series plot, histogram and inferential analysis carried out to draw conclusions from climatological data in Simeulue Regency. Based on the research results, it was found that the best model that can explain rainfall data in Simeulue Regency from the three regions is the eastern region data model using GAM as a p-spline smoothing basis and knot variations in air temperature (13), wind speed (16), air humidity (16 ), air pressure (13), solar radiation (16), daily effects (14) and annual effects (17) have a minimum AIC value of 1844.001, all predictor variables have a significant effect on rainfall in Simeulue Regency. Keywords: Generalized Additive Models (GAM), P-Spline Basis, Climatology, Simeulue Regency.