Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Tujuan penelitian ini menganalisis daya saing ekspor lobster Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama dan menganalisis pengaruh determinan ekspor, yaitu harga ekspor lobster Indonesia, GDP per kapita negara tujuan, dan nilai tukar riil terhadap ekspor lobster Indonesia ke lima negara tujuan utama yaitu Republik Rakyat Tiongkok, Taiwan, Hongkong, Singapura dan Malaysia. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis daya saing ekspor lobster Indonesia melalui pendekatan Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan Export Product Dynamics (EPD), dan determinan ekspor lobster Indonesia dianalisis dengan metode regresi panel ARDL menggunakan data panel meliputi data time series kuartalan tahun 2010 sampai 2022 data data cross-section lima negara tujuan utama ekspor lobster Indonesia. Hasil analisis daya saing menunjukkan bahwa lobster Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif ke Taiwan, Hongkong, Malaysia dan Singapura, sedangkan ke Tiongkok tidak. Pangsa pasar ekspor lobster Indonesia mengalami peningkatan diiringi peningkatan pangsa pasar perdagangan Indonesia ke negara Tiongkok dan Taiwan. Di sisi lain, pangsa pasar ekspor lobster Indonesia mengalami peningkatan tetapi terjadi penurunan pangsa pasar perdagangan Indonesia ke negara Hongkong, Malaysia, dan Singapura. Hasil estimasi regresi Panel ARDL menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang kenaikan harga ekspor lobster Indonesia tidak menyebabkan penurunan jumlah ekspor lobster Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama sedangkan kenaikan GDP per kapita negara tujuan menyebabkan penurunan jumlah ekspor lobster Indonesia yang disebabkan lobster Indonesia tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif ke negara Tiongkok padahal Tiongkok merupakan negara yang mengonsumsi lobster terbesar di dunia. Ketika pendapatan perkapita meningkat maka pengeluaran yang digunakan untuk mengonsumsi lobster menurun. Dalam jangka panjang mengonsumsi lobster menimbulkan utilitas yang berkurang. Dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar riil menjadi pertimbangan negara tujuan utama untuk memutuskan pembelian lobster dari Indonesia. Ketika nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap mata uang negara tujuan mengalami apresiasi, maka ekspor lobster Indonesia menurun. Sebaliknya, depresiasi nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap mata uang negara tujuan menyebabkan ekspor lobster Indonesia meningkat. Indonesia perlu memperluas pangsa pasar ekspor lobster ke negara lain tidak hanya mengekspor ke negara tujuan utama saja. Produktivitas dan kualitas lobster Indonesia harus ditingkatkan sebagai upaya untuk memperkuat daya saing ekspor lobster Indonesia di pasar internasional

Kata kunci: Daya saing, Ekspor, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Export Product Dynamics, Lobster, Panel ARDL.

The aims of this study is to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian lobster exports to major destination countries and analyze the effect of export determinants, namely the export price of Indonesian lobsters, GDP per capita of destination countries, and real exchange rates on Indonesian lobster exports to five major destination countries, namely the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. The method used to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian lobster exports through the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) approaches, and the determinants of Indonesian lobster exports are analyzed by the ARDL panel regression method using panel data including quarterly time series data from 2010 to 2022 cross-section data of five major destination countries for Indonesian lobster exports. The results of the competitiveness analysis show that Indonesian lobster has a comparative advantage to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore, while to China it does not. Indonesia's lobster export market share has increased accompanied by an increase in Indonesia's trade market share to China and Taiwan. On the other hand, Indonesia's lobster export market share increased but there was a decrease in Indonesia's trade market share to Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The ARDL Panel regression estimation results show that in the long run the increase in the export price of Indonesian lobster does not cause a decrease in the number of Indonesian lobster exports to the main destination countries while the increase in GDP per capita of the destination country causes a decrease in the number of Indonesian lobster exports due to Indonesian lobster not having a comparative advantage to China even though China is the country that consumes the largest lobster in the world. When per capita income increases, the expenditure used to consume lobster decreases. In the long run consuming lobster results in reduced utility. In the short term, the real exchange rate is a consideration for the main destination country to decide to buy lobster from Indonesia. When the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the currency of the destination country appreciates, Indonesian lobster exports decrease. Conversely, the depreciation of the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the currencies of destination countries causes Indonesian lobster exports to increase. Indonesia needs to establish trade cooperation with various countries for lobster trade cooperation in order to increase the number of Indonesian lobster exports to destination countries and other countries and improve the quality of lobsters as an effort to increase the competitiveness of Indonesian lobster exports in the international market. Keywords: Competitiveness, export, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Export Product Dynamics, Lobster, Panel ARDL