Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Probability Density Function (PDF) merupakan salah satu fungsi probabilitas dalam analisis masa hidup untuk melihat perilaku amatan. Salah satu kejadian yang dapat diamati adalah kejadian siklon tropis. Siklon tropis merupakan salah satu bencanabadai yang dapat yang menyebabkan kerusakan dan kerugian bagi wilayah yang dilintasinya maupun wilayah disekitarannya. Secara geografis Indonesia terletak pada perbatasan dengan wilayah pembentukan dan area lintasan siklon tropis sehingga wilayah Indonesia rawan terkena dampak dari siklon tropis. Beberapa dampak yang ditimbulkan dari akibat aktivitas siklon tropis berupa angin kencang, hujan deras yang dapat mengakibatkan banjir, gelombang tinggi, dan gelombang badai. Pada penelitian ini digunakan sebanyak 2.933 data siklus hidup siklon tropis yang bersumber dari website National Institute of Informatics. Data dikelompokkan berdasarkan wilayah Pasifik Utara dan Pasifik Selatan serta tahun kejadiannya. Siklon tropis merupakan salah satu bencana yang menyebabkan kerusakan dan kerugian bagi wilayah yang dilintasinya maupun wilayah disekitarannya. Secara geografis Indonesia terletak pada perbatasan dengan wilayah pembentukan dan area lintasan siklon tropis sehingga wilayah Indonesia rawan terkena dampak dari siklon tropis. Beberapa dampak yang ditimbulkan dari aktivitas siklon tropis berupa angin kencang, hujan deras yang dapat mengakibatkan banjir, gelombang tinggi, dan gelombang badai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan distribusi probabilitas yang sesuai terhadap data, mengidentifikasi karakteristik kecenderungan lama waktu berakhirnya siklon tropis, dan membandingkan perilaku siklus hidup siklon tropis berdasarkan wilayah Pasifik Utara dan Pasifik Selatan serta tahun kejadian di kedua wilayah tersebut. Melalui kriteria nilai AIC terkecil diketahui bahwa secara keseluruhan banyak dari data siklus hidup siklon tropis pada penelitian ini mengikuti distribusi probabilitas 3 parameter dengan distribusi paling banyak diikuti adalah distribusi Generalized Gamma. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis pada wilayah Pasifik Selatan cenderung lebih cepat berakhir dibandingkan pada wilayah Pasifik Utara, dan siklon tropis yang terjadi pada periode 2021 hingga 2022 cenderung lebih cepat berakhir di kedua wilayah tersebut dibandingkan dengan periode tahun sebelumnya. Analisis lebih lanjut melalui PDF menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis di wilayah Pasifik Selatan berpotensi berakhir pada waktu sekitar di bawah 3 hari, sedangkan siklon tropis di wilayah Pasifik Utara cenderung berakhir dalam waktu sekitar 5 hari hingga 1 minggu. Berdasarkan tahun kejadian pada kedua wilayah menunjukkan siklus hidup siklon tropis sebelum tahun 2000 cenderung semakin lama berakhir seiring bertambahnya periode, namun setelah tahun 2000 terlihat siklon tropis cenderung semakin cepat berakhir dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya.

Probability Density Function (PDF) is one of the probability functions in lifetime analysis to see observed behavior. One of the events that can be observed is the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone is a storm that can cause damage and loss to the area it traverses and the surrounding area. Geographically, Indonesia is located on the border with the formation area and trajectory of tropical cyclones, so that Indonesia is prone to the effects of tropical cyclones. Some of the impacts caused by tropical cyclone activity include strong winds, heavy rain which can cause flooding, high waves, and storm surges. In this study, 2,933 tropical cyclone life cycle data were used, sourced from the website of the National Institute of Informatics. This study aims to obtain a probability distribution that fits the data, identify the characteristics of the tendency for the length of time that tropical cyclones end, and compare the life cycle behavior of tropical cyclones based on the North Pacific and South Pacific regions and the year of occurrence in the two regions. Through the criteria of the smallest AIC value it is known that overall much of the tropical cyclone life cycle data in this study follows a 3-parameter probability distribution with the distribution most followed being the Generalized Gamma distribution. The results show that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region tend to end faster than those in the North Pacific region, and tropical cyclones that occur in the period 2021 to 2022 tend to end faster in these two regions compared to the previous year's period. Further analysis via PDF shows that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region have the potential to end in under 3 days, while tropical cyclones in the North Pacific region tend to end in around 5 days to 1 week. Based on the year of occurrence in the two regions, the life cycle of tropical cyclones before 2000 tended to end longer as the period increased, but after 2000 it was seen that tropical cyclones tended to end more quickly than the previous periodProbability Density Function (PDF) is one of the probability functions in lifetime analysis to see observed behavior. One of the events that can be observed is the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are one of the disasters that cause damage and loss to the areas they traverse and the surrounding areas. Geographically, Indonesia is located on the border with the formation area and trajectory of tropical cyclones, so that Indonesia is prone to the effects of tropical cyclones. Some of the impacts arising from tropical cyclone activity include strong winds, heavy rains which can cause flooding, high waves, and storm surges. In this study, 2,933 tropical cyclone life cycle data were used, sourced from the website of the National Institute of Informatics. This study aims to obtain a probability distribution that fits the data, identify the characteristics of the tendency for the length of time that tropical cyclones end, and compare the life cycle behavior of tropical cyclones based on the North Pacific and South Pacific regions and the year of occurrence in the two regions. Through the criteria of the smallest AIC value it is known that overall much of the tropical cyclone life cycle data in this study follows a 3-parameter probability distribution with the distribution most followed being the Generalized Gamma distribution. The results show that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region tend to end faster than those in the North Pacific region, and tropical cyclones that occur in the period 2021 to 2022 tend to end faster in these two regions compared to the previous year's period. Further analysis via PDF shows that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region have the potential to end in under 3 days, while tropical cyclones in the North Pacific region tend to end in around 5 days to 1 week. Based on the year of occurrence in the two regions, the life cycle of tropical cyclones before 2000 tended to end longer as the period increased, but after 2000 it was seen that tropical cyclones tended to end more quickly than the previous periodOne of the probability functions to look at observed behavior in lifetime analysis is the Probability Density Function (PDF). In this study, 2,933 tropical cyclone life cycle data were used, sourced from the website of the National Institute of Informatics. The data is grouped by the North Pacific and South Pacific regions and the year they occurred. Tropical cyclones are one of the disasters that cause damage and loss to the areas they traverse and the surrounding areas. Geographically, Indonesia is located on the border with the formation area and trajectory of tropical cyclones, so that Indonesia is prone to the effects of tropical cyclones. Some of the impacts arising from tropical cyclone activity include strong winds, heavy rains which can cause flooding, high waves, and storm surges. This study aims to obtain a probability distribution that fits the data, identify the characteristics of the tendency for the length of time that tropical cyclones end, and compare the life cycle behavior of tropical cyclones based on the North Pacific and South Pacific regions and the year of occurrence in the two regions. Through the criteria of the smallest AIC value it is known that overall much of the tropical cyclone life cycle data in this study follows a 3-parameter probability distribution with the distribution most followed being the Generalized Gamma distribution. The results show that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region tend to end faster than those in the North Pacific region, and tropical cyclones that occur in the period 2021 to 2022 tend to end faster in these two regions compared to the previous year's period. Further analysis via PDF shows that tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region have the potential to end in under 3 days, while tropical cyclones in the North Pacific region tend to end in 5 days to 1 week. Based on the year of occurrence in the two regions, the life cycle of tropical cyclones before 2000 tended to end longer as the period increased, but after 2000 it was seen that tropical cyclones tended to end faster than the previous period.