Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh pendapatan per kapita negara asal, fasilitas perhotelan, nilai tukar, dan biaya transportasi terhadap permintaan wisatawan asing di Pulau Sumatera. Guna mencapai tujuan tersebut, penelitian ini menggunakan metode Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) dari tahun 2003-2019 dengan 10 provinsi. Hasil estimasi jangka panjang menemukan pendapatan per kapita dan fasilitas perhotelan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap permintaan wisatawan asing. Nilai tukar dan biaya transportasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Sementara itu, hasil estimasi jangka pendek pendapatan per kapita berpengaruh negatif sebesar dan biaya transportasi berpengaruh positif. Berdasarkan temuan ini pemerintah mengambil langkah yang tepat untuk meningkat wisatawan asing di Pulau Sumatera yakni menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah, mempromosikan wisata lokal ke negara-negara berpendapatan tinggi, peningkatan layanan dan fasilitas perhotelan serta menjaga kestabilan harga minyak pesawat.

Kata Kunci: pendapatan per kapita, fasilitas perhotelan, nilai tukar, biaya
transportasi, permintaan wisatawan asing, PMG-ARDL.

This study aims to analyze the effect of the income per capita of the country of origin, hotel facilities, exchange rates, and transportation costs on the demand for foreign tourists on the island of Sumatra. To achieve this goal, this study uses the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) method from 2003-2019 with 10 provinces. The long-term estimation results find that income per capita and hotel facilities have a significant positive effect on foreign tourist demand. The exchange rate and transportation costs have a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, the results of the short-term estimation of per capita income have a negative effect and transportation costs have a positive effect. Based on these findings, the government took appropriate steps to increase foreign tourists on the island of Sumatra, namely maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, promoting local tourism to high-income countries, improving hotel services and facilities and maintaining the stability of aircraft oil prices. Keywords: income per capita, hotel facilities, exchange rates, transportation costs, foreign tourist demand, PMG-ARDL.