Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor ekonomi domestik dan global terhadap cadangan devisa indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. faktor domestik yang dianalisis meliputi suku bunga domestik, ekspor, dan foreign direct investment (fdi), sedangkan faktor global terdiri atas harga emas dunia, suku bunga the fed, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika serikat (idr/usd). penelitian menggunakan data bulanan periode 2010–2025 yang diperoleh dari bank indonesia, badan pusat statistik, bkpm, dan world gold council. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah error correction model (ecm) untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antarvariabel. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang harga emas dunia dan nilai tukar idr/usd berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa indonesia, sedangkan suku bunga domestik berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa indonesia, namun variabel lainnya seperti ekspor, fdi, dan suku bunga the fed tidak berpengaruh signifikan. dalam jangka pendek, ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan nilai tukar idr/usd berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa. variabel lainnya tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan. nilai error correction term (ect) yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa kinerja sektor eksternal, khususnya ekspor dan stabilitas nilai tukar, memiliki peran penting dalam menjaga ketahanan cadangan devisa indonesia. kata kunci: cadangan devisa, ecm, emas, ekspor, nilai tukar, suku bunga

This study aims to analyze the influence of domestic and global economic factors on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in the short and long term. Domestic factors analyzed include domestic interest rates, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), while global factors consist of world gold prices, the Fed's interest rate, and the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar (IDR/USD). The study uses monthly data for the period 2010–2025 obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), and the World Gold Council. The analysis method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine the short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The results show that in the long term, world gold prices and the IDR/USD exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, while domestic interest rates have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. However, other variables such as exports, FDI, and the Fed's interest rate do not have a significant effect. In the short term, exports have a positive and significant effect, while the IDR/USD exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Other variables do not show a significant effect. The negative and significant Error Correction Term (ECT) value indicates the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium. This finding suggests that external sector performance, particularly exports and exchange rate stability, plays a crucial role in maintaining the resilience of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. Keywords: ECM, Exchange Rate, Exports, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Gold, Interest Rate