Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Abstrak penelitian ini bertujuan menguji pengaruh ukuran pemerintah daerah, fiscal stress, dan belanja modal terhadap kemandirian keuangan pemerintah provinsi di indonesia periode 2015–2024 dengan total 118 observasi. seluruh variabel diukur dalam bentuk proporsi dan logaritma natural, yaitu kemandirian keuangan diukur melalui rasio pendapatan asli daerah terhadap total pendapatan daerah, ukuran pemerintah daerah menggunakan logaritma natural total aset, fiscal stress diukur melalui rasio defisit terhadap total pendapatan, serta belanja modal diukur menggunakan rasio belanja modal produktif pada periode sebelumnya (lag-1) terhadap total belanja daerah. analisis menggunakan regresi data panel dengan model terpilih fixed effect model (fem). hasil menunjukkan bahwa ukuran pemerintah daerah berpengaruh positif terhadap kemandirian keuangan daerah, sedangkan fiscal stress dan belanja modal berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemandirian keuangan daerah. kata kunci: kemandirian keuangan daerah, ukuran pemerintah daerah, fiscal stress, belanja modal produktif.

ABSTRACT This study aims to examine the influence of local government size, fiscal stress, and capital expenditure on the financial independence of provincial governments in Indonesia for the 2015–2024 period, with a total of 118 observations. All variables are measured in proportions and natural logarithms financial independence is measured by the ratio of regional original income to total regional revenue; local government size uses the natural logarithm of total assets fiscal stress is measured by the ratio of deficit to total revenue and capital expenditure is measured using the ratio of productive capital expenditure in the previous period (Lag-1) to total regional expenditure. The analysis employs panel data regression, with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) as the selected model. The results indicate that local government size has a positive effect on regional financial independence. Conversely, fiscal stress and capital expenditure have a negative effect on regional financial independence. Keywords: Regional Financial Independence, Local Government Size, Fiscal Stress, Productive Capital Expenditure