Electronic Theses and Dissertation

abstrak instruksi presiden nomor 1 tahun 2025 tentang efisiensi belanja menargetkan penghematan nasional rp306,7 triliun, termasuk pemotongan transfer ke daerah (tkd) sebesar rp50,5 triliun. kebijakan ini, bersamaan dengan pergantian kepala daerah hasil pilkada serentak 2024, mendorong pemerintah daerah melakukan perubahan apbd secara masif pada tahun anggaran 2025. penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan efisiensi belanja (inpres no. 1/2025), silpa, pad, dan perubahan belanja per anggota dprd terhadap perubahan anggaran belanja daerah tahun anggaran 2025 di indonesia. penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain cross-sectional. populasi adalah 514 kabupaten/kota dengan teknik sampling jenuh. setelah seleksi data, sampel analisis berjumlah 406 kabupaten/kota. analisis data menggunakan regresi berganda dengan robust standard error (hc1). hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan efisiensi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap perubahan belanja daerah (β = -0,171; p = 0,000), dengan rasio transmisi kebijakan sebesar 45,7%. silpa berpengaruh positif dan signifikan (β = 0,083; p = 0,000). pad berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan (β = -0,038; p = 0,000), daerah dengan kapasitas fiskal lebih kuat melaksanakan efisiensi lebih agresif. perubahan belanja dprd berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan (β = -0,659; p = 0,000). secara simultan, keempat variabel berpengaruh signifikan dengan adjusted rw square = 0,954 (f = 6,002 ; p = 0,000). dengan demikian perubahan belanja daerah tahun 2025 merupakan fenomena yang dapat dijelaskan secara sistemik melalui kombinasi faktor fiskal dan kebijakan nasional. perubahan apbd tahun 2025 bukan sekadar fenomena lokal, melainkan sebuah respons yang terstruktur dari seluruh pemerintah daerah terhadap intervensi kebijakan efisiensi pemerintah pusat, dengan intensitas yang berbeda sesuai kapasitas fiskal masing-masing daerah. kata kunci: perubahan apbd, efisiensi belanja, inpres no. 1/2025, transfer ke daerah, silpa, pad, dprd

ABSTRACT Presidential Instruction Number 1 of 2025 concerning Expenditure Efficiency targets national savings of IDR 306.7 trillion, including a reduction in Intergovernmental Transfers (Transfer ke Daerah/TKD) amounting to IDR 50.5 trillion. This policy, together with the transition of regional heads elected through the 2024 simultaneous local elections, encouraged local governments to implement massive Regional Budget Amendments (APBD Changes) in the 2025 Fiscal Year. This study aims to analyze the influence of Expenditure Efficiency Policy (Presidential Instruction No. 1/2025), Budget Surplus Financing (SiLPA), Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD), and changes in expenditure per Regional House of Representatives (DPRD) member on changes in Regional Expenditure budgets for the 2025 Fiscal Year in Indonesia. The study employed a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design. The population consisted of 514 regencies/municipalities, using a saturated sampling technique. After data selection, the final analytical sample comprised 406 regencies/municipalities. Data were analyzed using multiple regression with Robust Standard Error (HC1). The findings indicate that the expenditure efficiency policy has a negative and significant effect on changes in regional expenditure (β = -0.171; p = 0.000), with a policy transmission ratio of 45.7%. SiLPA has a positive and significant effect (β = 0.083; p = 0.000). PAD has a negative and significant effect (β = -0.038; p = 0.000), indicating that regions with stronger fiscal capacity implemented efficiency measures more aggressively. Changes in DPRD expenditure also have a negative and significant effect (β = -0.659; p = 0.000). Simultaneously, all four variables significantly affect regional expenditure changes, with an Adjusted Rw Square of 0.954 (F = 6.002; p = 0.000). Thus, changes in regional expenditure in 2025 constitute a phenomenon that can be systematically explained through a combination of fiscal factors and national policy interventions. The 2025 APBD amendments are not merely local, case-by-case phenomena, but rather a structured response by all local governments to the central government’s expenditure efficiency intervention, with varying levels of intensity according to each region’s fiscal capacity. Keywords: Regional Budget Amendment, Expenditure Efficiency, Presidential Instruction No. 1/2025, Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers, Budget Surplus Carry-Over, Own-Source Revenue, Regional Legislature