Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan dinamis antara foreign direct investment (fdi), suku bunga, nilai tukar, dan produk domestik bruto (pdb) di indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. penelitian menggunakan data sekunder berbentuk time series kuartalan selama periode 1990q1–2025q1. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah vector error correction model (vecm), yang dilengkapi dengan uji kausalitas granger, impulse response function (irf), dan forecast error variance decomposition (fevd). hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara fdi, suku bunga, nilai tukar, dan pdb. dalam jangka panjang, suku bunga dan pdb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap fdi, sedangkan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. dalam jangka pendek, sebagian besar variabel makroekonomi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap fdi, kecuali suku bunga pada lag kedua. hasil uji kausalitas granger menunjukkan hubungan satu arah dari fdi menuju suku bunga serta hubungan dua arah antara suku bunga dengan nilai tukar dan pdb. analisis irf memperlihatkan bahwa respons fdi terhadap guncangan variabel makroekonomi bersifat fluktuatif, tetapi secara bertahap menuju kondisi stabil. hasil fevd menunjukkan bahwa variasi fdi hingga periode ke-50 didominasi oleh guncangan fdi sendiri sebesar 94,37 persen, sedangkan kontribusi nilai tukar sebesar 2,82 persen, pdb sebesar 1,56 persen, dan suku bunga sebesar 1,25 persen. temuan ini menegaskan bahwa dinamika fdi indonesia lebih dominan dipengaruhi oleh pola historis dan faktor internalnya sendiri. kata kunci: fdi, suku bunga, nilai tukar, pdb, vecm

This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), interest rates, exchange rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia in the short and long term. The study uses secondary data in the form of quarterly time series covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2025Q1. The analytical methods employed include the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), supplemented by the Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among FDI, interest rates, the exchange rate, and GDP. In the long run, interest rates and GDP have a positive and significant effect on FDI, while the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect. In the short run, most macroeconomic variables do not have a significant effect on FDI, except for interest rates at the second lag. The results of the Granger causality test indicate a one-way relationship from FDI to interest rates, as well as two-way relationships between interest rates and both the exchange rate and GDP. The IRF analysis shows that FDI’s response to shocks in macroeconomic variables is volatile but gradually converges toward a stable state. The FEVD results show that variations in FDI up to the 50th period are dominated by FDI shocks themselves at 94.37 percent, while the exchange rate contributes 2.82 percent, GDP 1.56 percent, and interest rates 1.25 percent. These findings confirm that the dynamics of FDI Keywords: FDI, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, GDP, VECM