Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK
Judul
: Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar dan PDB Negara Mitra
Terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia
Di Pasar Internasional
Penulis : Julian As’ari
NIM

: 2201101010115
Fakultas/Jurusan
: Ekonomi dan Bisnis/Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing
: Prof. Dr. Taufiq C. Dawood, S.E., M.Ec.Dev dan
Talbani Farlian, S.E., M.A
Konsentrasi
: Ekonomi Internasional
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar, dan Produk
Domestik Bruto (PDB) negara mitra terhadap daya saing Indonesia di pasar
internasional selama periode 1995–2024 dengan menggunakan metode
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Penelitian ini menggunakan indikator
Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) untuk mengukur daya saing ekspor
minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar internasional. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan
bahwa dalam jangka pendek inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap
daya saing ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar internasional, sedangkan nilai
tukar dan PDB negara mitra berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap daya saing
ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar internasional. Dalam jangka panjang inflasi
tetap berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap daya saing ekspor minyak sawit
Indonesia di pasar internasional tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap daya saing
ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar internasional, nilai tukar dan PDB negara
mitra berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap daya saing ekspor minyak sawit
Indonesia di pasar internasional. pemerintah disarankan untuk menjaga stabilitas
inflasi dan nilai tukar guna mempertahankan daya saing ekspor Indonesia, serta
memperkuat hubungan perdagangan dengan negara mitra utama agar peluang
ekspor Indonesia semakin meningkat.
Kata Kunci: Daya Ekspor inyak Sawit Indonesia, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, PDB
Negara Mitra, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Autoregressive Distributed Lag.

ABSTRACT Title : The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rates, and GDP of Partner Countries on Indonesia's Plam Oil Exports Competitiveness in The International Market Author : Julian As'ari NIM : 2201101010115 Faculty/Department : Economics and Business/Development Economics Supervisors : Prof. Dr. Taufiq C. Dawood, S.E., M.Ec.Dev and Talbani Farlian, S.E., M.A Concentration : International Economics This study aims to analyze the impact of inflation, exchange rates, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of partner countries on Indonesia's competitiveness in the international market during the 1995–2024 period, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study employs the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indicator to measure the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil exports in the international market. The results indicate that, in the short term, inflation has a significant negative impact on the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil exports, whereas exchange rates and the GDP of partner countries have a significant positive impact. In the long term, inflation continues to exert a significant negative impact on competitiveness, while exchange rates and the GDP of partner countries maintain a significant positive impact. It is recommended that the government maintain inflation and exchange rate stability to preserve the competitiveness of Indonesian exports and strengthen trade relations with key partner countries to further enhance export opportunities.partners to expand Indonesia’s export opportunities in the international market. Keywords: Indonesian Palm Oil Export Performance, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Partner Country GDP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Autoregressive Distributed Lag.