Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan kausalitas antara kredit, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di Indonesia periode 2003–2023 menggunakan model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan Causality Granger. Hasil dari penelitian menujukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap inflasi dalam jangka Panjang dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kredit. Dalam jangka pendek pertumbuhan ekonomi memberikan kontribusi negatif dan signifikan terhadap kredit. Hasil kausalitas granger menunjukkan hubungan kausalitas satu arah antara pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap inflasi dan kredit, dan kredit memiliki hubungan kausalitas satu arah terhadap inflasi. Bank Indonesia diharapkan perlu menjaga inflasi dalam target yang stabil guna mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan, mendorong penyaluran kredit yang lebih produktif, serta meningkatkan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal untuk stabilitas makroekonomi.
Kata Kunci: Kredit, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Inflasi, VECM

This study analyzes the causal relationship between credit, economic growth and inflation in Indonesia for the period 2003–2023 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Causality Granger. The results of the study indicate that economic growth has a positive effect on inflation in the long run and economic growth has a negative and significant effect on credit. In the short term, economic growth contributes negatively and significantly to credit. The results of granger causality show a one-way causality relationship between economic growth on inflation and credit, and credit has a one-way causality relationship with inflation. Bank Indonesia is expected to keep inflation within a stable target to support sustainable economic growth, encourage more productive lending, and improve monetary and fiscal policies for macroeconomic stability. Keywords: Credit, Economic Growth, Inflation, VECM