Electronic Theses and Dissertation

ABSTRAK

Judul : Analisis Hubungan Kausal Antara Suku Bunga Bi, Inflasi, Investasi, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia
Penulis : M. Rafif Athallah
NIM : 1901101010122
Fakultas/Jurusan : Ekonomi dan Bisnis/Ekonomi Pembangunan
Pembimbing : Weri, S.E., M.A
Konsentrasi : Ekonomi Moneter


Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan kausalitas antara suku bunga BI, investasi, inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dalam jangka waktu 2011-2022. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregressive (VAR) dan Granger Causality Test. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang sudah dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga BI berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investasi di Indonesia, sementara inflasi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan investasi, tetapi tidak berdampak pada suku bunga BI. Investasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap suku bunga BI, inflasi, atau pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, maka pemerintah disarankan untuk meninjau kebijakan suku bunga BI dan pengendalian inflasi guna meningkatkan investasi, serta menciptakan lingkungan yang kondusif melalui insentif pajak, perbaikan infrastruktur, dan penyederhanaan regulasi.

Kata Kunci: Suku Bunga BI, Inflasi, Investasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi.

ABSTRACT Title : Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Bi Interest Rate, Inflation, Investment, and Economic Growth in Indonesia Author : M. Rafif Athallah NIM : 1901101010122 Faculty/Departement : Economics and Business/ Economics Development Advisor : Weri, S.E., M.A Consentration : Monetary Economics This study aims to analyze the causality relationship between BI interest rates, investment, inflation and economic growth in Indonesia. This study uses time series data in the period 2011-2022. This research method uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Granger Causality Test. Based on the results of the research conducted, it shows that the BI interest rate has a significant effect on investment in Indonesia, while inflation affects economic growth and investment, but has no impact on the BI interest rate. Investment and economic growth do not show a significant effect on the BI rate, inflation, or economic growth. To improve Indonesia's economic growth, the government is advised to review the BI interest rate policy and controlling inflation to increase investment, and create a conducive environment through tax incentives, infrastructure improvements, as well as regulatory simplification. Keyword: BI Interest Rate, Inflation, Investment, Economic Growth.