Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Perbedebatan tentang pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi masih terus terjadi di sektor ekonomi publik sehingga menimbulkan pertanyaan variabel mana yang memberikan dampak lebih dahulu? Perdebatan ini membahas tentang Teori Keynes dan teori Wagner. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui hubungan pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data penelitian yang digunakan dari tahun 1960 hingga 2019 dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 60. Model penelitian menggunakan non kausalitas granger oleh Toda-Yamamoto (1995). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara itu pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap pengeluaran pemerintah. Dapat disimpulkan terdapat hubungan dua arah antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Melihat keduanya saling berpengaruh maka direkomendasikan pertumbuhan ekonomi diharapkan terus meningkat sehingga terjadi peningkatan pengeluaran pemerintah. Di sisi lain pemerintah perlu mempercepat melakukan belanja dan meningkatkan belanja agar perekonomian tumbuh.

The debate about government spending and economic growth continues in the public economic sector, raising the question which variables had an impact first? This debate discusses the Keynesian theory and Wagner's theory. This study aims to determine the causality between government spending and economic growth in Indonesia. The research data used was from 1960 to 2019 with 60 samples. In order to find causality, we tested model non-granger causality by Toda-Yamamoto (1995). The results showed that government spending had an effect on economic growth. Therefore economic growth affects government spending. It can be concluded that there is a two-way relationship (bidirectional) between government spending and economic growth. Seeing the two influence each other, it is recommended that economic growth is expected to continue to increase so that there will be an increase in government spending. On the other hand, the government needs to accelerate and increase spending so that the economy grows.