Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalis pengaruh ketahanan pangan (FS), pembiayaan syariah di sektor pertanian (ASF), pembiayaan bermasalah (NPF), dan nilai tukar (ER) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) di Indonesia. Metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Data penelitian menggunakan data kuartalan dari 2014Q1 sampai 2020Q4. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka panjang ditemukan ketahanan pangan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan pembiayaan bermasalah berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara pembiayaan syariah sektor pertanian tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan berikutnya dalam jangka pendek menjelaskan pembiayaan syariah sektor pertanian berpengaruh positif signifikan dan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Ketahanan pangan, pembiayaan bermasalah, dan pembiayaan syariah sektor pertanian tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Hasil pengujian Granger non kausalitas Toda-Yamamoto menunjukkan seluruh variabel penjelas mempunyai hubungan langsung dua arah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi kecuali pembiayaan syariah sektor pertanian. Sementara pembiayaan bermasalah dan pembiayaan syariah sektor pertanian memiliki hubungan dengan ketahanan pangan. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut maka pemerintah perlu meningkatkan ketahanan pangan produktivitas tenaga kerja guna meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu, pemerintah perlu mengendalikan indikator pada bank-bank syariah terutama masalah pembiayaan macet dimana harus dikurangi. Selain itu perlunya dorongan pihak bank Islam untuk bisa menyalurkan pembiayaan lebih banyak khususnya sektor pertanian dan memberikan keringan agar terjadi kelanjutan dalam dampak panjang. Terakhir, pemerintah diharapkan mampu menjaga nilai stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah.

Kata kunci: Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Ketahanan pangan, Pembiayaan bermasalah, Pembiayaan syariah, Nilai tukar

This study aims to analyze the effect of food security (FS), Islamic financing in the agricultural sector (ASF), Islamic non-performing financing (NPF), and the exchange rate (ER) on economic growth (GDP) in Indonesia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag method is used in this study. The research data uses quarterly data from 2014Q1 to 2020Q4. The results showed that in the long run, food security had a significant positive effect on economic growth, while non-performing financing had a significant negative effect on economic growth. While the financing of the agricultural sector has no significant effect. Subsequent findings in the short term explain that the financing of the agricultural sector has a significant positive effect and the exchange rate has a significant negative effect. Food security, non-performing financing, and agricultural sector financing have no significant effect. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test show that all explanatory variables have a direct two-way relationship with economic growth, except for financing in the agricultural sector. Non-performing financing and financing for the agricultural sector have a relationship with food security. Based on these findings, the government needs to improve food security, labor productivity in order to increase economic growth. In addition, the government needs to control indicators on Islamic banks, especially the problem of bad financing which must be reduced. In addition, the need for encouragement from Islamic banks to be able to channel more financing, especially the agricultural sector and provide relief so that there is a continuation in the long term. Finally, the government is expected to be able to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate. Keywords: Economic growth, food security, Non-performing financing, sharia financing, exchange rates