Electronic Theses and Dissertation

PENGARUH PANDEMI COVID-19 TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN
DI INDONESIA MELALUI MEDIASI VARIABEL INVESTASI, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN INFLASI

Oleh : Sabran
NPM : 2001201010003

Pembimbing 1 : Prof. Dr. Apridar, S.E., M.Si.
Pembimbing 2 : Dr. Muhammad Abrar, S.E., M.Si.

Pandemi Covid-19 telah menyebabkan perekonomian terganggu. Akibatnya, banyak perusahaan terpaksa harus tutup dan karyawan kehilangan pekerjaan. Beberapa variabel ekonomi yang diduga sebagai mediasi dampak pandemic Covid-19 terhadap pengangguran diantaranya: investasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak pandemi Covid-19 terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia baik secara langsung atau melalui mediasi investasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan inflasi. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel pada 34 provinsi di Indonesia pada periode 2018Q1 – 2021Q4. Melalui analisis jalur diperoleh hasil bahwa pandemi Covid-19 berpengaruh secara langsungmemberikan dampak positif terhadap pengangguran. Variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi secara signifikan memediasi pengaruh pandemi Covid-19 terhadap pengangguran. Sementara itu, variabel investasi dan inflasi tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan. Masyarakat perlu menerapkan protokol kesehatan dan melakukan vaksinasi. Pemerintah perlu memberikan bantuan modal khususnya kepada UMKM dan memberikan pelatihan digitalisasi ekonomi kepada tenaga kerja. Diharapkan penelitian ini dapat memberikan gambaran objektif tentang dampak dari pandemi Covid-19 terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia dan menjadi tolak ukur perumusan kebijakan dalam menghadapi dampak pandemi ini.

Kata Kunci: investasi, inflasi, Pandemi Covid-19, pengangguran, pertumbuhan ekonomi
 

ABSTRACK THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN INDONESIA THROUGH MEDIATION OF INVESTMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION VARIABLES By : Sabran NPM : 2001201010003 Supervisor 1 : Prof. Dr. Apridar, S.E., M.Si. Supervisor 2 : Dr. Muhammad Abrar, S.E., M.Si. The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the economy. As a result, many companies were forced to close and employees lost their jobs. Several economic variables that are suspected of mediating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on unemployment include: investment, economic growth and inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on unemployment in Indonesia either directly or through the mediation of investment, economic growth and inflation. The research was conducted using panel data regression in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the 2018Q1 – 2021Q4 period. Through path analysis, the results show that the Covid-19 pandemic has a direct positive impact on unemployment. The economic growth variable significantly mediates the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on unemployment. Meanwhile, investment and inflation variables do not have a significant effect. Communities need to implement health protocols and vaccinate. The government needs to provide capital assistance, especially to UMKM and provide training on economic digitization for the workforce. It is hoped that this research can provide an objective picture of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on unemployment in Indonesia and become a benchmark for policy formulation in dealing with the impact of this pandemic. Kata Kunci: Covid-19 pandemic, inflation, investment, path analysis, unemployment