Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) di Indonesia dengan menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, konsumsi energi, dan industri manufaktur terhadap kelestarian lingkungan dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga mengkaji peran konsumsi energi dan industri manufaktur sebagai variabel moderasi dalam hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kelestarian lingkungan. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik, World Bank, dan Global Carbon Budget selama periode 1983–2024. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linear berganda dan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hipotesis EKC berlaku di Indonesia, yang mengindikasikan adanya hubungan nonlinier antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kelestarian lingkungan. Dalam jangka panjang, konsumsi energi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kelestarian lingkungan, sedangkan industri manufaktur tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Selain itu, konsumsi energi memoderasi hubungan tersebut ke arah yang berlawanan dengan teori EKC, sementara industri manufaktur memperkuat hubungan sesuai dengan teori EKC. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan pembangunan berkelanjutan melalui transisi energi bersih, pengurangan ketergantungan pada energi fosil, penerapan teknologi hemat energi, serta pemberian insentif bagi penggunaan energi bersih, serta peningkatan pengawasan dan pengendalian aktivitas industri serta emisi lingkungan.

Kata kunci: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Konsumsi Energi, Industri manufaktur, ARDL

This study aims to examine the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Indonesia by analyzing the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, and the manufacturing industry on environmental sustainability in both the short and long run. In addition, this study investigates the role of energy consumption and the manufacturing industry as moderating variables in the relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability. The data used are secondary data obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik, the World Bank, and the Global Carbon Budget, covering the period 1983–2024. The analytical methods employed are multiple linear regression and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that the EKC hypothesis holds in Indonesia, indicating a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability. In the long run, energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on environmental sustainability, while the manufacturing industry has no significant effect. Furthermore, energy consumption moderates the relationship in a direction opposite to the EKC theory, whereas the manufacturing industry strengthens the relationship in line with the EKC theory. These findings highlight the importance of sustainable development policies, including the transition to clean energy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, implementing energy-efficient technologies, providing incentives for clean energy usage, as well as strengthening the monitoring and regulation of industrial activities and environmental emissions. Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Manufacture Industry, ARDL