Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah dan Dana Alokasi Umum terhadap belanja modal dengan budget ratcheting sebagai variabel moderasi serta Dana Bagi Hasil dan Sisa Lebih Perhitungan Anggaran sebagai variabel kontrol pada pemerintah kabupaten/kota di Aceh periode 2020–2024 dengan total 115 observasi. Seluruh variabel diukur dalam bentuk proporsi, meliputi belanja modal dan SiLPA terhadap total belanja daerah serta Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Alokasi Umum, dan Dana Bagi Hasil terhadap total pendapatan daerah. Budget ratcheting diukur menggunakan pendekatan Aranda (2010) berdasarkan perubahan anggaran Pendapatan Asli Daerah terhadap realisasi periode sebelumnya. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dan Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Alokasi Umum, dan Dana Bagi Hasil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap belanja modal, sedangkan Sisa Lebih Perhitungan Anggaran dan budget ratcheting tidak berpengaruh signifikan, serta budget ratcheting tidak mampu memoderasi hubungan tersebut. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa belanja modal lebih ditentukan oleh struktur dan prioritas fiskal daerah.

Kata Kunci: Belanja Modal, Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Alokasi Umum, Dana Bagi Hasil, Sisa Lebih Perhitungan Anggaran, Budget Ratcheting, Pemerintah Daerah.

This study aims to examine the effect of Regional Original Revenue and General Allocation Funds on capital expenditure, with budget ratcheting as a moderating variable and Revenue Sharing Funds and Budget Surplus (SiLPA) as control variables in regency/municipal governments in Aceh during the 2020–2024 period, with a total of 115 observations. All variables are measured in proportion, including capital expenditure and SiLPA relative to total regional expenditure, as well as Regional Original Revenue, General Allocation Funds, and Revenue Sharing Funds relative to total regional revenue. Budget ratcheting is measured using the Aranda (2010) approach based on changes in the budget of Regional Original Revenue relative to the previous period’s realization. The analysis is conducted using panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results show that Regional Original Revenue, General Allocation Funds, and Revenue Sharing Funds have a negative and significant effect on capital expenditure, while Budget Surplus (SiLPA) and budget ratcheting have no significant effect, and budget ratcheting is not able to moderate these relationships. These findings indicate that capital expenditure is more determined by regional fiscal structure and priorities. Keywords: Capital Expenditure, Local Own-Source Revenue, General Allocation Fund, Revenue Sharing Fund, Budget Surplus, budget ratcheting, Local Government.