Electronic Theses and Dissertation

“Disertasi berjudul Adaptasi Manajemen Risiko pada Usahatani Padi Berdasarkan Tipologi Wilayah dilatarbelakangi oleh tingginya risiko usahatani padi yang bersumber dari faktor produksi, harga dan pasar, kelembagaan (kebijakan), sumber daya manusia, dan keuangan. Aceh perlu menjamin keberlanjutan produksi padi sebagai komoditas pangan utama masyarakat. Perbedaan karakteristik agroekologi antarwilayah, seperti Aceh Utara (pesisir dengan irigasi teknis), Aceh Tengah (dataran tinggi), dan Aceh Barat (pesisir barat–selatan), menuntut penerapan manajemen risiko yang spesifik sesuai dengan prioritas risiko, ketersediaan infrastruktur, serta kondisi sosial ekonomi dan perilaku masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan prioritas manajemen risiko berbasis tipologi wilayah, mengidentifikasi sistem budidaya dengan risiko minimal dan keuntungan optimal, serta menganalisis intensi petani dalam merespons keterbatasan pupuk dengan mengintegrasikan faktor psikologis seperti kebiasaan, afek, identitas peran, keyakinan normatif, keyakinan kontrol, keyakinan perilaku, dan norma pribadi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan survei dengan sampel 360 petani padi yang dipilih melalui quota sampling di tiga kabupaten dengan tipologi wilayah berbeda. Dari setiap kabupaten dipilih sebanyak 120 petani yang mewakili empat sistem budidaya. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan Risk Calculator untuk menentukan prioritas risiko, simulasi Monte Carlo untuk mengestimasi probabilitas kerugian dan tingkat keuntungan finansial, serta Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) berbasis Theory of Interpersonal Behavior untuk menganalisis faktor yang memengaruhi intensi petani terhadap perubahan kebijakan pupuk. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa prioritas risiko berbeda antarwilayah: Aceh Utara didominasi risiko biologis dan tingginya biaya tenaga kerja; Aceh Tengah menghadapi risiko iklim, ketersediaan air, dan keterbatasan modal; sedangkan Aceh Barat menghadapi kombinasi risiko produksi dan pasar. Simulasi Monte Carlo menunjukkan bahwa sistem budidaya inovatif cenderung memberikan pendapatan lebih tinggi dengan tingkat risiko yang bervariasi antarwilayah dan musim tanam. Dari sisi perilaku, norma pribadi dan persepsi kendali berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap intensi, sedangkan afek berpengaruh negatif signifikan; sementara norma sosial dan identitas peran tidak signifikan. Secara keseluruhan, adaptasi manajemen risiko usahatani padi di Aceh bersifat kontekstual dan lebih dipengaruhi oleh persepsi kendali serta dinamika psikologis petani dibandingkan tekanan sosial. Oleh karena itu, kebijakan manajemen risiko perlu dirancang secara diferensial dan terintegrasi antarwilayah untuk menjamin keberlanjutan produksi padi.”

Kata kunci: usahatani padi; manajemen risiko; simulasi Monte Carlo; structural equation modeling; theory of interpersonal behavior.

“The dissertation entitled Risk Management Adaptation in Rice Farming Based on Regional Typology is motivated by the high level of risk in rice farming arising from production factors, price and market fluctuations, institutional (policy) aspects, human resources, and financial constraints. Aceh needs to ensure the sustainability of rice production as the main staple food commodity for its population. Differences in agroecological characteristics across regions—such as North Aceh (coastal areas with technical irrigation), Central Aceh (highlands), and West Aceh (west–south coastal areas)—require the implementation of specific risk management strategies tailored to risk priorities, infrastructure availability, as well as socio-economic conditions and farmers’ behavioral characteristics. This study aims to determine risk management priorities based on regional typology, identify farming systems with minimal risk and optimal profitability, and analyze farmers’ intentions in responding to fertilizer constraints by integrating psychological factors such as habit, affect, role identity, normative beliefs, control beliefs, behavioral beliefs, and personal norms. The study employs a survey approach with a sample of 360 rice farmers selected through quota sampling across three districts representing different regional typologies. From each district, 120 farmers were selected to represent four different farming systems. The analysis was conducted using a Risk Calculator to determine risk priorities, Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of losses and financial returns, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on the Theory of Interpersonal Behavior to analyze factors influencing farmers’ intentions in response to fertilizer policy changes. The results show that risk priorities vary across regions: North Aceh is dominated by biological risks and high labor costs; Central Aceh faces climate risks, water availability issues, and capital constraints; while West Aceh experiences a combination of production and market risks. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that innovative farming systems tend to generate higher income, although with varying levels of risk across regions and planting seasons. From a behavioral perspective, personal norms and perceived control have a significant positive effect on intention, while affect has a significant negative effect; meanwhile, social norms and role identity are not significant. Overall, risk management adaptation in rice farming in Aceh is contextual and is more strongly influenced by perceived control and farmers’ psychological dynamics than by social pressure. Therefore, risk management policies should be designed in a differentiated and integrated manner across regions to ensure the sustainability of rice production.” Keywords: rice farming; risk management; Monte Carlo simulation; structural equation modeling; theory of interpersonal behavior.