Electronic Theses and Dissertation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar, dan suku bunga terhadap financial distress dengan ukuran perusahaan sebagai variabel moderasi pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2020-2024. Sampel penelitian sebanyak 124 perusahaan manufaktur yang dipilih melalui purposive sampling, sehingga diperoleh 620 observasi. Analisis data dilakukan dengan regresi data panel menggunakan pendekatan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) berdasarkan hasil Uji Chow dan Uji Hausman. Pengujian hipotesis dilakukan melalui uji simultan, uji parsial, dan Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap financial distress, sedangkan inflasi dan suku bunga tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Ukuran perusahaan terbukti memoderasi pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap financial distress, namun tidak mampu memoderasi pengaruh inflasi dan suku bunga. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan bahwa perusahaan perlu mengelola risiko nilai tukar secara lebih efektif, dan perusahaan kecil harus lebih waspada terhadap fluktuasi kurs karena tidak memiliki ketahanan finansial sekuat perusahaan besar.

Kata Kunci: Financial Distress, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Ukuran Perusahaan.

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate on financial distress with firm size as a moderating variable in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2020-2024 period. The research sample consisted of 124 manufacturing companies selected through purposive sampling, resulting in 620 observations. Data analysis was performed using panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model approach based on the results of the Chow Test and Hausman Test. Hypothesis testing was conducted through simultaneous tests, partial tests, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The analysis results show that the exchange rate has a significant effect on financial distress, while inflation and interest rates have no significant effect. Firm size is proven to moderate the effect of exchange rate on financial distress but fails to moderate the effects of inflation and interest rates. These findings imply that companies need to manage exchange rate risk more effectively, and small firms should be more vigilant about exchange rate fluctuations as they do not possess the same financial resilience as large firms. Keywords: Financial Distress, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Firm Size